When Sam Darnold signed a one-year deal with the Minnesota Vikings, the expectation was that he would start until the team’s 2024 first round pick, JJ McCarthy, was ready.[1] But those plans changed when McCarthy tore his meniscus and was ruled out for the entire season.[2] Nonetheless, Darnold has been extremely productive in McCarthy’s absence. Through Darnold’s first seven games he had 1,610 passing yards, 14 touchdowns to 5 interceptions, and a 107.2 passer rating (which currently ranks 4th in the league).[3] And the Vikings’ 5-2 record is still one of the league’s best despite their recent loss to the Los Angeles Rams.[4]
Sam Darnold is currently set to be a free agent at the end of the 2024 season.[5] While it is unclear whether the Vikings will resign Darnold, he should be in line for a nice payday if he continues to play at this level. Here’s where the current Quarterback Market stands:[6]
Current Quarterback Market (in millions)
Over the past two seasons, 15 starting quarterbacks (or expected starting quarterbacks) signed multi-year contracts.[7]Within these deals, there are two distinct markets: Franchise Quarterbacks and Starters with Question Marks.
Franchise Quarterbacks[8]
There are some differences between contracts within the franchise quarterback market due to factors such as (a) how early they signed their extensions and (b) their previous contract situation (rookie contract v. second big contract), to name a few.[9] However, every quarterback signed as their team’s bona-fide franchise quarterback. Each player was their respective team’s starting quarterback prior to signing and each sustained some level of success as the starter.[10]
Starting Quarterbacks with Question Marks
The next market of quarterbacks all signed their deals either (a) as a free agent or (b) shortly before they would’ve become a free agent.[11] Each quarterback in this market had question marks that likely hindered them from receiving more money and security.[12] Kirk Cousins signed with the Falcons at age 35 after suffering a torn Achilles; Derek Carr signed with the Saints following a down year with the Raiders that led to his release; and Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, and Geno Smith were all inconsistent quarterbacks that signed their contracts after strong contract years.[13]
Beyond the fact that the “Franchise Quarterbacks” make substantially more money, two key differences between the two markets are (a) total guaranteed money and (b) the number of years each player is practically guaranteed to be under contract.[14] Each quarterback within the “Franchise Quarterback” market was practically guaranteed all (or almost all) of their money through the first three extension years of the contract.[15] As a result of the (a) guaranteed money, and (b) substantial cap charges associated with prorated bonuses, teams would face a serious dead cap hit if they decided to cut ties with their “Franchise Quarterback” before their third extension year.
In contrast, each secondary market contract allows the team to cut their quarterback after year two with a manageable dead cap hit.[16] In other words, all these deals could be viewed as two-year deals with one or two team-option years.
Sam Darnold’s Fit Within the Market
Assuming Sam Darnold continues to play at his current level, I would expect his deal to be structured in a similar fashion as the “Starting Quarterbacks with Question Marks” contracts. This would include two guaranteed years, and one or two “team-option” years where the team can cut him without too much of a dead cap hit.
Sam Darnold’s career closely resembles the path of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. Baker and Darnold were drafted 1stand 3rd, respectively, during the 2018 NFL Draft; and both Smith and Darnold were drafted early by the New York Jets.[17] In addition, all three quarterbacks had their strong contract years on one-year deals with their fourth NFL team.[18]
I would expect Darnold and his representation to push for a contract similar to Daniel Jones’ deal: $160 million total over 4 years with the first two years fully guaranteed.[19] Like Baker and Smith, Jones was an inconsistent quarterback that had a strong year right before hitting free agency.[20] Furthermore, Darnold will be younger than Baker and Smith were when they signed their deals.[21] While I am not sure if Darnold’s market will be strong enough to get a deal comparable to Daniel Jones, I do not think it is out of the question if he plays at his current level the rest of this season.
Minnesota Vikings Situation & Sam Darnold’s Potential Contract
The Vikings are in an interesting predicament. The Vikings have JJ McCarthy who should be ready at the beginning of the 2025 season, but he will be coming off major ACL surgery with no professional experience.[22] I imagine the Vikings would want to bring back Darnold, but at the right price.
As the Packers have shown with Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love, a quarterback can be successful after sitting on the bench for multiple years.[23] If the Vikings do not sign Darnold, I would expect them to bring in another “bridge quarterback” in case McCarthy is not yet ready. While this option would be cheaper, McCarthy is unproven and coming off a major injury. Meanwhile, the Vikings know that they can be competitive with Darnold as their signal caller.
In addition to how well he plays, Darnold’s market value will be determined by how many teams are willing to sign him to a multi-year deal worth over $30 million a year. Right now, there are around 5-6 college quarterbacks that could be early 2025 draft picks if they decide to leave school.[24] In addition, there are several compelling quarterbacks on expiring contracts - such as both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields of the Pittsburgh Steelers - that could be cheaper options than Darnold.[25] With around 5-10 teams that could potentially be in the market for a quarterback this offseason, it is tough to predict exactly what Darnold’s demand and market will actually look like.[26] Nevertheless, he has proven that he is worth more than a one-year “prove-it” deal.
*Sam Darnold Vikings Mock Contract
This proposed contract would present Darnold with a four-year deal worth over $35 million a year and $140 million total, with a $27.5 million dollar signing bonus – the difference in “signing bonus” and “prorated bonus” comes from cap charges associated with his 2024 signing bonus. Darnold’s pay over the first three years is modeled heavily off Baker’s three-year deal, but Darnold’s contract would also fully guarantee his second season – something the Vikings have done in recent contracts.[27] In addition, it includes standard workout and per-game bonus amounts akin to previous Vikings deals.[28]
While Darnold’s deal beats Baker’s in every key category, the two contracts are virtually identical if the Vikings decided to cut Darnold after the second or third year. In addition, it is cheaper, per year, than the transition tag or franchise tag (which are projected at $35 and $40 million respectively for 2025) if the Vikings decide to keep him around at least one more year.[30] From Darnold’s perspective, he’d be getting $60 million dollars guaranteed over two seasons to start for a good organization that can compete right now.
Again, Darnold’s eventual deal will be heavily influenced by (a) his finish to this season and (b) how many teams are in the free agent quarterback market. However, if the Vikings want to bring him back, I believe the deal above would get it done.
Christian Novarro (staff writer) is a 3L at Villanova University Charles Widger School of Law. At Villanova, he is a Sports Law fellow, and he is captain of Villanova’s Football Negotiation Team. As an avid football and baseball fan, Christian hopes to one day work for a team, league, or agency within their football/baseball administration departments.
References:
[1] ESPN.com, Sources: Vikings agree to 1-year deal with QB Sam Darnold (12 Mar 2024) https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39712987/vikings-agree-1-year-deal-qb-sam-darnold
[2] Rob Kleifeld, Vikings Adjust Plans at Quarterback After J.J. McCarthy's Sidelining (14 Aug 2024) https://www.vikings.com/news/jj-mccarthy-sidelining-quarterback-plans-adjust
[7] Id.
[8] Id.
[9] Id.
[10] Trevor Sikkema, PFF Quarterback Rankings: All 32 starters ahead of the 2024 NFL season (21 May 2024)
[12] Id.
[13] Sikkema, supra
[15] Id.
[16] Id.
[17] https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DarnSa00.htm; https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitGe00.htm; https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MayfBa00.htm
[18] https://overthecap.com/player/geno-smith/2249 ; https://overthecap.com/player/sam-darnold/6888 ; https://overthecap.com/player/baker-mayfield/6886
[21] https://overthecap.com/player/geno-smith/2249 ; https://overthecap.com/player/sam-darnold/6888 ; https://overthecap.com/player/baker-mayfield/6886
[22] Nick Shook, Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy to miss rookie season following surgery to repair meniscus (14 Aug 2024) https://www.nfl.com/news/vikings-qb-j-j-mccarthy-to-miss-rookie-season-following-surgery-to-repair-meniscus
[23] Albert Breer, Sitting Jordan Love Was the Right Thing to Do for the Packers (13 Aug 2024) https://www.si.com/nfl/sitting-jordan-love-right-thing-for-the-packers#:~:text=%22Being%20on%20the%20bench%20for,and%20it's%20hard%20for%20him.
[25] Dallas Robinson, 2025 NFL QB Market: Sam Darnold, Justin Fields Top Free Agent Rankings After Dak Prescott Extension (10 Sep 2024) https://www.profootballnetwork.com/best-2025-free-agent-quarterbacks-nfl/
[28] Id.
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