This article is a continuation of Growing the Sport or Diluting the Talent Pool: Discourse Over Where the NHL Expands, please click here to read that.[2] For convenience, the introduction is included again here.
As the National Hockey League’s (NHL) preseason is off to a running start, new rumors have surfaced regarding a potential expansion of the league. When asked about expansion league commission Gary Bettman has remained open, but uncommittable to the possibility. [3] At a 2023-24 preseason press conference, Bettman addressed expansion rumors stating, “If you’re interested in expansion, submit your applications and we’ll evaluate them.”[4] This preseason’s rumors have the top contenders for an expansion team as Houston, Texas and a third attempt in Atlanta, Georgia.[5]
The last league expansion was during the 2021-22 season introducing the Seattle Kraken.[6] For the first time since 1999, when the NHL had 28 teams, the league has even divisions.[7] Currently, there are eight teams for each of the four divisions.[8] During his 30 year and counting tenure as commissioner, Bettman has led the way with the addition of eight teams.[9] This expansion is the largest since the late 1960s to mid 1970s when the league grew from the Original Six teams to 18 teams in less than a decade.[10] However, growth is often accompanied by arguments, both for and against the growth of hockey.
Diluted Talent Pools
When the talent pool grows, the pack spreads thin.[11] When the baseline shifts, star players move further ahead while the average player gets a little worse.[12] When the NHL expanded to 30 teams, Bettman claimed the next five years would focus on solidifying the teams.[13] In situations where two teams are added, it is especially difficult to convince rival general managers to let go of two good players.[14] Thus, dozens of players previously in lower leagues would be thrust into the NHL, leading to a watered-down product rather than rewarding breakout stars.[15]
While there is a larger talent pool today, adding 23 to 46 additional roster spots would push players in the minors to the league earlier.[16] Not only is there a chance playing as a teenager will hurt their development, but the dilution of strong players may make the game less competitive.[17] Players often need the time in the American Hockey League (AHL), the little brother to the NHL, to help develop their skills at a more elite level than collegiate or junior hockey leagues. Even blockbuster players, like first-round pick Rutger McGroarty, need the time to mature outside of being a star collegiate player.[18] McGroarty made the team after training camp but was sent to the AHL-affiliate team after just three games.[19]
With less talented players required to fill roster spots, a lower quality of overall play may result.[20] During playoffs, when the competition shrinks to the league’s top 16 teams, there is a sizeable difference in players’ abilities.[21] When facing the most elite teams, top forwards doubled their Offensive Rating from a 2.6 during the regular season to an average of 5.1 during playoffs.[22] Similarly, defensive players showcase an average of 2.5 Offensive Rating during the regular season but jump to 4.6 during playoffs.[23] When the competition becomes tighter, the level of play equally elevates.[24] Even though the league has remained competitive following the addition of teams in Vegas and Seattle, how can the talent threshold be determined? As the most elite league in the world, the NHL should maintain the highest standards.[25]
Amplifying Competition
The addition of an expansion team introduces 20 more players. The increase in talent leads to increased replaceability and pushes the baseline.[26] When both the Vegas Golden Knights and the Seattle Kraken were introduced to the league, the goal-per-game statistic jumped 0.4.[27] Similar 0.4 goals on average jumps were seen when the league went to 12 teams, 14 teams, 16 teams, 18 teams.[28]
The growth of the league has also opened the pool of players.[29] During the “Original Six” era, Canada supplied almost 99% of players.[30] Now, Canadian players make up roughly 40% of teams, American players 30%, and the remaining 30% being a mixture of Sweden, Russia, Finland, Czech and more.[31] Additionally, the 2023 World Junior finals did not even include Canada, instead the United States, Sweden, Czechia, and Finland competed out for the medals.[32] With more countries producing more skilled players, expansion still spreads the talent pool thin.[33] When recently questioned on the Houston and Atlanta rumors, Bettman claimed expansion might be considered, but “we’re not there right now.”[34]
The league reintroduced the Global Series in 2017, which has sent two to four teams annually to now six different countries.[35] This year introduces the inaugural 4 Nations Face-Off tournament.[36] NHL players from Canada, Finland, Sweden, and the United States will represent their nations during a week-long tournament hosted across Boston and Montreal.[37] Additionally, earlier this year, the league announced players could qualify to represent their home countries in the Olympics.[38] Milan 2026 will be the first time NHL players could participate on this global stage since 2014.[39] Rather than average teams that cannot independently thrive and survive, the growth of the sport should be based on increased competition amongst the most elite players.
JUHI PATEL (deputy editor-in-chief) is a 2L at Villanova University Charles Widger School of Law. She self-identifies as an off-brand New York Sports fan rooting on the Islanders, Nets, and Bills. She is a part of the Soccer Negotiation Competition Team and is interested in labor, employment, and intellectual property law.
References:
[1] Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash
[2] Juhi Patel, Growing the Sport or Diluting the Talent Pool: Discourse Over Where The NHL Expands (Oct. 25, 2024) Nova Sports Law Blog. https://www.novasportslaw.com/post/growing-the-sport-or-diluting-the-talent-pool-discourse-over-where-the-nhl-expands
[3] Carol Schram, The NHL’s Expansion Timetable Is Starting to Pick Up Some Steam (Mar. 17, 2024) Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolschram/2024/03/17/the-nhls-expansion-timetable-is-starting-to-pick-up-some-steam/
[4] See Id.
[5] Antonio Losada, Report: No Love for Canada in Upcoming NHL Expansion (Sept. 10, 2024) Athlon Sports. https://athlonsports.com/nhl/report-canada-united-states-atlanta-houston-nhl-expansion
[6] Bazoom Group, Seattle Kraken: The NHL’s Newest Expansion Team (Sept. 17, 2024) NewsTalk kFLD. https://newstalk870.am/seattle-kraken-nhl-newest-expansion-team/#
[7] Cutler Klein, From six teams to 31: History of NHL expansion (June 22, 2016) National Hockey League. https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-expansion-history-281005106
[8] Standings (last visited on Oct. 1, 2024) National Hockey League. https://www.nhl.com/standings/2024-10-04/division
[9] See Klein, supra note 7.
[10] See Klein, supra note 7.
[11] Dom Luszczyszyn, How NHL expansion to 36 teams could increase league-wide scoring (Sept. 20, 2024) The Athletic. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5779942/2024/09/20/nhl-expansion-teams-scoring/
[12] See Id.
[13] ESPN, Has game, Canada been compromised? (Aug. 10, 2000) http://a.espncdn.com/nhl/s/expansion/talent2.html
[14] John Mastisz, Beyond 32? The cases for and against NHL expansion (Jan. 2024) The Score. https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2801816
[15] See Id.
[16] See Id.
[17] See Id.
[18] Sportsnet Staff, Top Penguins prospect Rutger McGroarty assigned to AHL (Oct. 16, 2024) SportsNet. https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/top-penguins-prospect-rutger-mcgroarty-assigned-to-ahl/
[19] See Id.
[20] Unveiling the truth behind NHL expansion teams: Pros vs Cons (last visited Oct. 1, 2024) The Show. https://theshowvdgsports.com/unveiling-the-truth-behind-nhl-expansion/
[21] Dom Luszczyszyn, How the NHL’s quality of competition changes in the playoffs (Apr. 3, 2024) The Athletic. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5386347/2024/04/03/nhl-playoffs-quality-of-competition/
[22] See Id.
[23] See Id.
[24] See Id.
[25] See Mastisz, supra note 14.
[26] See Luszczyszyn, supra note 11.
[27] See Luszczyszyn, supra note 11.
[28] See Luszczyszyn, supra note 11.
[29] See ESPN, supra note 13.
[30] See ESPN, supra note 13.
[31] Matthew Kendrick and Ari Winkleman, The Graphic Truth: The NHL is no longer dominated by Canadians (Oct. 12, 2023) GZERO. https://www.gzeromedia.com/gzero-north/the-graphic-truth-the-nhl-is-no-longer-dominated-by-canadians
[32] Standings (last visited Oct. 1, 2024) IIHF. https://www.iihf.com/en/events/2024/wm20/standings/final
[33] See ESPN, supra note 13.
[34] David Satriano, NHL, NHLPA expected to begin talks on new CBA in early 2025 (Oct. 1, 2025) National Hockey League. https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-nhlpa-expected-to-begin-talks-on-new-cba-in-early-2025
[35] Games Outside North America (last visited Oct. 1, 2025) records.NHL.com https://records.nhl.com/events/games-outside-north-america
[36] See Satriano, supra note 34.
[37] See Satriano, supra note 34.
[38] Nicholas J. Cotsonika, NHL announces return to Olympics, will participate in Milan 2026 (Jan. 2, 2024) NHL. https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-announces-return-to-olympics-will-participate-in-milan-in-2026
[39] See Id.
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